:Product: 0606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1494 (S18W06)
produced an M2/1b at 06/2006Z associated with Type II (est. speed
1148 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME was first
visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2036Z. Further analysis will
be conducted as more images become available to determine
geoeffectiveness. A filament eruption was observed in SDO AIA 193
imagery around 05/1945Z near N12W10. The CME was first visible in
STEREO COR 2 imagery at 05/2039Z. The majority of the ejecta appears
to be north of the ecliptic plane, however, there is a weak
Earth-directed component. A model run is in progress to determine
geoeffectiveness. The Penticton 10 cm Flux value was estimated due
to flare enhancement.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (07-09 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active for the past 24
hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on day one
(07 June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (08-09 June)
as effects from the CH HSS begin to subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 140
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  011/015-007/012-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    40/30/15