:Product: 0613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1504 (S17E14)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare at 13/1317Z associated with a
260 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep.  This region showed
growth in the leading spots and developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 13/1412Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between
700 and 800 km/s.  Old Region 1507 was split into two regions as it
showed two distinct bipolar areas and now consists of Region 1507
(S25W13) and Region 1508 (S28W06).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 14-15 June.  An increase to unsettled levels
is expected mid-day on day 3 (16 June) due to a possible glancing
blow from todays CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 143
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  006/005-006/005-009/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/25