:Product: 0614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1504 (S16E01)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare with maximum at 14/1435Z.  This
event was associated with a 1400 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio
sweep.  This region showed growth and maintained its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  An associated CME was
observed in STEREO imagery at 14/1424Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky velocity between 900 and 1100 km/s.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 15-16 June.  An increase to unsettled to
active levels is expected early on day 3 (17 June) due to combined
effects from both the 13 June and 14 June CMEs.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 149
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  150/150/145
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  006/005-006/005-014/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/35