:Product: 0615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels.  Region 1504
(S16W12) produced several C-class flares, the largest of which was a
C3/Sf flare at 1324Z.  Although the magnetic configuration has
simplified from a delta to a beta-gamma, the area of the region has
increased.  The remaining regions were relatively stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Isolated M-class flares are likely for the next three
days (16 June-18 June), primarily from Region 1504.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet until late on day 1 (16 June) to early
on day 2 (17 June).  Activity is then expected to increase to active
levels with a chance for minor storm levels due to the combined
effects from both the 13 and 14 June CMEs. On day 3 (18 June)
conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 145
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  008/015-017/022-009/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/50/30