:Product: 0713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1521 (S21W34) has been the most active region,
producing multiple low-level C-class events. Region 1520 (S16W23)
has decayed in area but remains the most magnetically complex region
on the disk, still classified as a beta-gamma-delta. The other four
numbered active sunspot regions have remained quiet and rather
stable. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 13/0224Z. After
analysis, the CME was determined to not be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (14-16 July), as
Regions 1520 and 1521 continue to evolve and rotate toward the west
limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels with a slight chance
for isolated periods at major storm levels on day one (14 July), due
the arrival of the 12 July CME. Unsettled to active levels with a
chance for minor storm periods are expected on day two (15 July), as
effects of the CME continue. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (16 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     99/99/50
PCAF       red
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 147
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  145/135/125
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  017/034-014/018-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/05
Minor storm           15/15/01
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    60/20/05