:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1526 (S18E39) produced the largest event of the
period, a C1 x-ray flare at 21/2324Z. The other regions on the disk
remained stable and quiet. Two new, yet to be numbered regions,
rotated onto the visible disk early in the period. Both regions
appear to have sunspots, however SWPC forecasters are awaiting more
data.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (23-25 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for the next three days (23-25 July), as a coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 094
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  095/100/105
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  013/015-012/012-009/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    35/35/25