:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  New Region 1530 (S19E68) was
responsible for multiple low level C-class flares.  The largest was
a C4/Sf at 24/1905Z.  SDO and STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery show
brightening behind the northeast and southeast limbs, suggesting the
presence of more active regions yet to rotate onto the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated minor storm period at high latitudes from 24/1200 - 1500Z. 
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in
solar wind speed from approximately 450 km/s to 580 km/s by 24/0830Z
before decreasing to 500 km/s by the end of the period.  This is
likely due to the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a maximum flux
of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and continued to fluctuate near the 10 pfu
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active periods on day 1 (25 July) due to persistent effects from the
coronal hole high speed stream.  Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for days 2 - 3 (26 - 27 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     30/01/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 102
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  008/008-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05