:Product: 0804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1539 (S22E31) produced a
long duration C3/sf x-ray flare which began at 04/1104Z and ended at
04/1649Z. An associated limb event CME was observed in SOHO LASCO as
well as by STEREO coronagraphs, with an estimated speed of 905 km/s.
ENLIL depicts trajectory of the transient between Earth and STEREO
B, with a glancing blow expected beyond the forecast period. No new
active regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class over the next 3 days
(5-7 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be primarily quiet over the next 3 days (5-7 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 139
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  000/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05