:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  An M2 flare was observed
on the northeast limb at 17/1319Z.  A coronal mass ejection (CME)
was later observed in LASCO C3 imagery emerging from the northeast
limb around 17/1354Z.  An M1 flare followed at 17/1720Z from the
same vicinity.  The M1 flare was accompanied by a Tenflare (140sfu).
New region 1547 (N05E21) was numbered today and classified as a Cso
type group with beta magnetic characteristics.  Region 1543 (N24W59)
remained the largest group on the disk and was classified as a Cko
type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for an M-flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.  Active
levels were observed during the 00-03Z synoptic period.  The
remainder of the day saw quiet to active conditions.  The active
period was associated with effects from a CME which occurred on 13
August.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20
August) with lingering effects from a CME and the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    10/15/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 095
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  095/095/100
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  009/012-010/012-011/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/25/25