:Product: 0820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1543 (N21, L=021)
produced the largest event of the period, a B8 flare at 19/2315Z,
off of the northwest limb.  Region 1548 (N20E47) also produced a low
level B-class flare.  The remaining spotted regions were stable and
quiet. A full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 19/1918Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed
of 605 km/s. STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2 imagery shows this CME to be
a back-sided event and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next
three days (21-23 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 19/2100Z to 20/0000Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on days 1-2 (21-22 August) due to continued effects from
the coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (23 August) conditions
are expected to return to predominately quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 096
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/20/05