:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. There were a few low level
B-class flares observed.  All spotted regions were quiet and stable.
New Region 1553 (S23E50), an Hsx/alpha type group, was numbered. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next three days
(24-26 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for days 1-2 (24-25 August).  Day
3 (26 August) is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight
chance for an active period due to a high speed stream from a
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 097
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  006/005-006/005-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/25