:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare in the past
24 hours was a C1 at 1817Z from a region just around the east limb.
No CMEs observed in the past 24 hours are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated period of active and major storm levels at high latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions.  A slight chance exists for high latitudes to
reach major storm levels on 27 August, increasing to a chance on 28
- 29 August.  Increased activity is due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 113
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug  115/120/120
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25