:Product: 0830RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. A region around the east
limb produced an M1 flare at 1211Z along with multiple C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
New Regions 1562 (S16E56) and 1563 (S25E71) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 August and 1 September with
a chance for minor to major storm levels at high latitudes. Activity
is expected to return to mostly quiet levels on 2 September with a
slight chance for active to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
Increased activity on days 1 and 2 is due to a coronal hole high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 128
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  010/010-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/05