:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period
was a C5/SN flare at 1810Z from Region 1560 (N03W17). This region
remains the largest and most magnetically complex with a beta-gamma
configuration. Two potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed
with estimated speeds of 570 and 530 km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep
occurred at 0435Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing
filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of
60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and is currently above threshold at the time of
this report.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME,
and high latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels. On
days 2 and 3 (4-5 September), activity is expected to decrease to
mostly unsettled conditions with continuing CME effects. The two
CMEs observed today along with a coronal hole high speed stream are
expected to arrive late on day 3 (5 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     75/40/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 142
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  020/030-014/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           40/20/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    40/10/20