:Product: 0912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 1564 (S13W95)
was the most active sunspot group, producing several C-class flares
as it rotated off the west limb.  The largest flare produced was a
long duration C4 at 11/2207Z.  Two new B-type Cso regions were
numbered; Region 1570 (S13W34) emerged while 1571 (S12E57) rotated
onto the disk.  There was no Earth directed CME activity during the
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare on day 1 (13
September).  M-class probability is expected to decrease for the
second and third days (14-15 September) as Region 1564 rotates
further beyond the limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.   There was an
isolated period of major storming at high latitudes during
12/09-12Z.  A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE
spacecraft at about 11/2200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet with a slight chance for unsettled levels on
days 1 and 2 (13-14 September).  An increase to quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for an active period is expected on the
third day (15 September) due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 103
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep  100/095/095
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  004/005-004/007-009/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/10