:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  New Region 1576
(S22E62) produced a few C-class flares, the largest a C2/Sf at
19/1512Z.  Both Region 1576 and 1575 (N10E62) continue to rotate
onto the disk and appear to have beta magnetic characteristics.  No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (20 - 22 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  ACE
satellite measurements of the solar wind observed steady velocities
at about 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field varied between +8 to -10 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (20
September).  An increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active intervals is expected for days two and three (21 - 22
September) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 110
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 122
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  009/010-008/012-009/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/30