:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest flare of the
period was a C4 flare at 25/1753Z from Region 1580 (N17E67).  New
Region 1581 (N22E03) was numbered today.  No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions.  There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from active regions
rotating around the southeast limb.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 140
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep  145/145/150
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  004/005-004/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05