:Product: 1005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A long duration (7.5
hours) B7 x-ray event was observed at 05/0730Z.  Post eruption loop
structures were observed in GOES SXI imagery beginning at
approximately 05/0328Z in the vicinity of Region 1584 (S22W40)
shortly after the beginning of the B7 flare at 05/0317Z.  A partial
halo CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 05/0730Z and
STEREO A COR2 imagery at 05/0409Z with an estimated plane-of-sky
speed at 590 km/s.  WSA-ENLIL model indicates this Earth-directed
CME to become geoeffective late on 08 October.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels with the chance for a C-class flare during the
forecast period (06-08 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-2 (06-07 October).  Late on
day 3 (08 October), todays CME is expected to become geoeffective
causing unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storm
periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 106
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 122
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  006/005-006/005-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/20