:Product: 1009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few C-class events were
observed during the period, most from a region around the southeast
limb that has not yet rotated onto the disk.  Three new regions were
numbered today with Region 1589 (N13E75) as the largest and most
active.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare over the next three days
(10-12 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the day at active levels before the onset
of two major storm periods (09/00-06Z). This peak activity was then
followed by a minor storm period before mostly quiet conditions
prevailed for the remainder of the period. The increased activity
was the result of residual effects from the CME on 05 October. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day one (10 October), due to
high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
forecast on day two (11 October) and mostly quiet levels are
expected on day three (12 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 106
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  021/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  024/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  012/015-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/05
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    40/20/05