:Product: 1017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A new, unnumbered region on
the northeast limb produced numerous C-class events during the
period, the largest of which was a C7 flare at 17/0802Z.  The other
regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for during the next
three days (18 - 20 Oct).  Region 1591 (N07E07) and the new region
on the limb are the only regions that show any potential for M-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.  The solar
wind velocity measured at the ACE spacecraft increased from around
350 km/s to around 500 km/s at 16/2300Z.  The solar wind then slowly
decreased from around 500 km/s to the end-of-day value around 440
km/s.  These signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from
a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18 - 20
Oct).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 135
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05