:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Nov 09 2310 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0151Z which was associated with a non-earth directed CME that
originated from a region behind the east limb. There was a second CME
observed begining at 09/1524Z which was associated with a filament
eruption in the southeast quadrant of the disk. Analysis of the second
CME is still ongoing. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on
the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and
three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at
08/2216Z. There was a weak enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons at
geosynchronous orbit in response to the full halo, backsided CME that
occurred yesterday. The peak flux level was 2 pfu at 09/0420Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 115
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 120/125/130
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  007/007-007/007-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05