:Product: 1129RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Nov 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2/1f flare observed at 28/2136Z from Region 1620 (S13W69). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk including newly-numbered Region 1625 (N13E50). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 403 km/s at 28/2126Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day 1 (30 November) due to a CME passage from merged CMEs observed on 26 and 27 November. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (01 December) as CME effects subside. Quiet conditions are expected on Day 3 (02 November). III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Nov 113 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 123 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 012/015-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/10/05 Minor Storm 20/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/10 Major-severe storm 55/15/05