:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/2142Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec) with a
chance for an isolated C-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
360 km/s at 02/0343Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/0105Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/0733Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec)
with a chance for unsettled levels on 03 Dec.

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 098
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05