:Product: 1217RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Dec 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0220Z from Region 1629 (N13W88). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 532 km/s at 17/1237Z. Total IMF reached 9.6 nT at 17/0740Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.4 nT at 17/1102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Dec) and a return to predominantly quiet levels for days two and three (19 Dec and 20 Dec). III. Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Dec 115 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 012/012-008/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/15 Major-severe storm 20/20/05