:Product: 1223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/2220Z from Region 1633 (S05W27). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at
22/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 114
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  004/005-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05