:Product: 1225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
25/1304Z from Region 1635 (N11W17). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 344 km/s at
25/0252Z. Total IMF reached 5.3 nT at 25/0334Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.9 nT at 25/1629Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next two days (26 - 27 December).  By day
three (28 December), activity is expected to increase to quiet to
unsettled levels.
III.  Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Dec 113
Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        25 Dec 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10