:Product: 0101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/0906Z from Region 1640 (N28W06). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 371 km/s at
31/2110Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (02 Jan, 03
Jan, 04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 118
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  007/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05