:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and
three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 322 km/s at
03/1909Z. Total IMF reached 5.5 nT at 03/1220Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.3 nT at 03/1209Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 129
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05