:Product: 0105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0931Z from Region 1652 (N20E74). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06
Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 361 km/s at
04/2209Z. Total IMF reached 5.2 nT at 05/1138Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.5 nT at 04/2306Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet on day 1 (06 Jan).  Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on days 2-3 (07 Jan, 08 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    35/35/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 145
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 145/140/135
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  005/005-006/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/15