:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0956Z from Region 1654 (N10E60). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels for days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan) with a
chance for moderate levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
09/0444Z. Total IMF reached 6.6 nT at 08/2308Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.1 nT at 08/2309Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan,
12 Jan) with a chance of unsettled levels on day three (12 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 169
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 175/175/175
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  006/005-005/005-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/15