:Product: 0110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
10/1746Z from Region 1654 (N08E47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan) with an
increasing chance for an M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 352 km/s at
10/0712Z. Total IMF reached 5.7 nT at 10/1422Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.1 nT at 10/1420Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (11 Jan, 12
Jan, 13 Jan) with a chance for unsettled levels during days two and
three.

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 174
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan 175/175/175
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/15