:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 11 2235 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0911Z from Region 1654 (N08E31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at moderate
levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at
11/1941Z. Total IMF reached 8.7 nT at 11/2036Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 11/2029Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13
Jan, 14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 172
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 175/170/170
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    15/15/05