:Product: 0112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/0224Z from Region 1654 (N08E18). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate 
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 418 km/s at
12/2037Z. Total IMF reached 8.8 nT at 11/2130Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.8 nT at 11/2130Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 Jan), and quiet for
days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 169
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 170/165/160
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/05