:Product: 0114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
14/0122Z from Region 1652 (N18W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
levels with moderate levels likely on days one, two, and three (15 Jan,
16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
593 km/s at 14/0352Z. Total IMF reached 8.6 nT at 13/2316Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6.8 nT at 14/0015Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for days one and two (15-16 Jan) and unsettled
levels on day three (17 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 154
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 150/145/140
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  006/005-006/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/35