:Product: 0115RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Jan 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0556Z from Region 1654 (N07W19). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of moderate levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 564 km/s at 14/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 520 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for day one (16 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day two (17 Jan) due to the arrival of the CME from 13 Jan. On day three (18 Jan), the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with a chance of active periods. III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan Class M 45/45/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Jan 140 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 123 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 006/005-010/012-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/35/25 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 10/30/30 Major-severe storm 05/45/30