:Product: 0116RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Jan 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a long-duration C2 event observed at 16/1923Z from a filament eruption near old Region 1650 (S31W79). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 467 km/s at 15/2142Z. Total IMF reached 6.4 nT at 16/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4.0 nT at 16/1131Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 934 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for day 1 (17 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels for days 2 - 3 (Jan 18, Jan 19). III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jan 137 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 123 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 010/012-007/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 45/30/10