:Product: 0120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/1432Z from Region 1654 (N08W84). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (21 Jan).  Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance
for C-class flares on days two and three (22 - 23 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 19/2230Z. Total IMF reached 8.7 nT at 20/0624Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8.2 nT at 20/0546Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 250 pfu.
IIB.  The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for
days one and two (21 - 22 Jan).  The geomagnetic field is expected to
increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Jan) in response
to a negative polarity CH/HSS.

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 107
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/20