:Product: 0127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jan,
29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak of 590 km/s at 27/0533Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 098
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 095/095/110
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10