:Product: 0129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan,
31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at
28/2340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 095
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10