:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 01 0930 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2013

::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/0434Z from Region 1663 (S09W24). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02
Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 344 km/s at
31/2011Z. Total IMF reached 6.5 nT at 31/2045Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.4 nT at 31/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 367 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Feb) increasing to
quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Feb) as a coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. A further increase to
quiet to active levels is expected on day three (03 Feb) due to
continued CH HSS effects and a glancing blow from an earth-directed CME.

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 103
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  005/005-007/012-012/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/35