:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low with a chance for C-flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03
Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 382 km/s at 01/2111Z.
Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/2055Z. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -7.6 nT at 01/2047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (02 Feb, 03 Feb,
04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 104
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  007/012-012/018-009/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/35/35