:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/1958Z from Region 1667 (N23E49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04
Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 529 km/s at
02/1457Z. Total IMF reached 11.5 nT at 02/0147Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.5 nT at 02/0221Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (03 Feb, 04 Feb,
05 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 112
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 110/115/115
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  012/015-009/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/15