:Product: 0203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
03/0610Z from Region 1667 (N22E42). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04
Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 491 km/s at
02/2104Z. Total IMF reached 7.5 nT at 03/1445Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2.6 nT at 03/1303Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 388 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (04 Feb, 05
Feb, 06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 111
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  009/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/15/10