:Product: 0204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2/Sf flare with an
associated Type II (estimated velocity of 849 km/s) observed at 04/1459Z
from an unnumbered region that recently rotated around the eastern limb.
This region was not numbered due to the close proximity to the limb. 
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk and no
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections expected.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
03/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/1630Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.8 nT at 04/1632Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 204 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Feb 107
Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        04 Feb 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  006/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10