:Product: 0205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
05/0819Z from Region 1669 (N08E52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at
05/0601Z. Total IMF reached 6.1 nT at 05/0408Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.5 nT at 05/0410Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 122 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 105
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10