:Product: 0206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
06/0021Z from Region 1667 (N22E01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 346 km/s at
06/1848Z. Total IMF reached 6.5 nT at 06/2036Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.1 nT at 06/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (07 Feb, 08 Feb,
09 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 104
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  006/005-007/008-012/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/35