:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 391 km/s at
07/1936Z. Total IMF reached 10.2 nT at 07/0519Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -9.1 nT at 07/0541Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next three days (08 Feb, 09
Feb, 10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 103
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  014/022-011/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/20