:Product: 0208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
481 km/s at 08/1445Z. Total IMF reached 10.9 nT at 08/0159Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9.6 nT at 08/0203Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (09 Feb, 10 Feb,
11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 104
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 105/110/105
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  011/012-008/009-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/10