:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0640Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 487 km/s at
09/0319Z. Total IMF reached 6.5 nT at 09/0114Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.4 nT at 09/0322Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet on days 1 and 2 (10-11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
for day 3 (12 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 108
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 110/105/105
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10