:Product: 0210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 425 km/s at
09/2223Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/0048Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.3 nT at 10/0414Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (11 Feb, 12
Feb, 13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 106
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  005/005-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/20/10